Scientific method
| Exploring for Oil and Gas Traps | |
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| Series | Treatise in Petroleum Geology |
|---|---|
| Chapter | Developing a philosophy of exploration |
| Author | Edward A. Beaumont, Norman H. Foster, Richard R. Vincelette, Marlan W. Downey, James D. Robertson |
| Link | Web page |
| Store | AAPG Store |
In looking at past actions and past outcomes, it is easy to analyze whether exploration predictions were correct. If they were correct, the technology used for the predictions was probably proper and correct.
In real-time monitoring of whether technology is used properly, managers must rely on subjective measures. One helpful approach is to assess whether a company's technical efforts are truly part of a scientific approach to exploration. A scientific approach requires that technology be used in a logic sequence to solve problems, i.e., be deployed not for its own sake but as part of a scientific methodology.
The scientific method
The logic sequence, or scientific method, has been the basis of scientific work since the time of Copernicus and takes the form shown in the following list:
- State a problem.
- Collect observations relevant to the problem.
- Formulate a hypothetical solution (interpretation) of the problem, consistent with the observations.
- Predict other observable phenomena from the hypothesis.
- Test predictions by observing occurrences or nonoccurrences of the predicted phenomena.
- Accept, modify, or reject the hypothesis (interpretation) in accordance with the degree of fulfillment of the predictions.
Measuring the merit of predictions
Technical work in exploration is most valuable when it both conforms to and lasts through the entire logic sequence. We can appreciate a solid technical effort that produces a good initial interpretation. However, the true measure of merit is the accuracy of the predictions inherent in this first hypothesis and the robustness of the interpretation when these predictions are tested by new data.
See also
External links
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