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{{publication  

{{publication  

  | image  = exploring-for-oil-and-gas-traps.png

  | image  = exploring-for-oil-and-gas-traps.png

  | part    =  

  | part    =  

  | chapter = Developing a philosophy of exploration

  | chapter = Developing a philosophy of exploration

  | frompg  = 1-1

  | frompg  = 1-28

  | topg    = 1-37

  | topg    = 1-29

  | author  = Edward A. Beaumont, Norman H. Foster, Richard R. Vincelette, Marlan W. Downey, James D. Robertson

  | author  = Edward A. Beaumont, Norman H. Foster, Richard R. Vincelette, Marlan W. Downey, James D. Robertson

  | link    = http://archives.datapages.com/data/specpubs/beaumont/ch01/ch01.htm

  | link    = http://archives.datapages.com/data/specpubs/beaumont/ch01/ch01.htm

  | isbn    = 0-89181-602-X

  | isbn    = 0-89181-602-X

}}

}}

Technical effort in petroleum exploration that follows the six steps of the scientific method is the only effort that can consistently progress toward an acceptable solution. The table below shows how to apply the scientific method to petroleum exploration.

Technical effort in [[petroleum]] exploration that follows the six steps of the scientific method is the only effort that can consistently progress toward an acceptable solution. The table below shows how to apply the scientific method to petroleum exploration.

==Examples==

==Examples==

{| class = "wikitable"

{| class = "wikitable"

|-

|-

! Step

! Step || Action || Example(s)

! Action

! Example(s)

|-

|-

| 1

| 1 || State the problem || Asking “Where are the economical hydrocarbon accumulations?”

| State the problem

| Asking “Where are the economical hydrocarbon accumulations?”

|-

|-

| 2

| 2 || Collect observations || Collecting [http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/outcrop outcrop], [[Seismic data|seismic]], and well log data

| Collect observations

| Collecting outcrop, seismic, and well log data

|-

|-

| 3

| 3 || Formulate hypothesis || Correlating seismic records with well logs [[Contour]]ing structural and thickness data

| Formulate hypothesis

| Correlating seismic records with well logs Contouring structural and thickness data

|-

|-

| 4

| 4 || Make predictions || Recommending lease purchases Recommending drilling a test well on the basis of map interpretation

| Make predictions

| Recommending lease purchases Recommending drilling a test well on the basis of map interpretation

|-

|-

| 5

| 5 || Test predictions by observing phenomena || Seismically detailing a structural prospect Drilling a [[wildcat]] well

| Test predictions by observing phenomena

| Seismically detailing a structural prospect Drilling a wildcat well

|-

|-

| 6

| 6 || Accept, modify, or reject the hypothesis || Drilling another wildcat well Promoting a well to test a modified hypothesis Dropping acreage

| Accept, modify, or reject the hypothesis

| Drilling another wildcat well Promoting a well to test a modified hypothesis Dropping acreage

|}

|}

==Step 2: Collect observations==

==Step 2: Collect observations==

Much of the technical work done in exploration can be categorized as collecting observations (data). Under this heading comes work such as logging samples, recording shows, compiling sediment interval thicknesses, acquiring field [[seismic data]], and identifying paleontologic data.

Much of the technical work done in exploration can be categorized as collecting observations (data). Under this heading comes work such as [[Sample and data archiving|logging samples]], [[Show evaluation|recording shows]], compiling sediment interval thicknesses, acquiring field [[seismic data]], and identifying [[Paleontology|paleontologic data]].

==Step 3: Formulate a hypothesis==

==Step 3: Formulate a hypothesis==

We should continuously evaluate whether the products of an exploration effort have passed step 3. For example, compare these two pieces of stratigraphic work:

We should continuously evaluate whether the products of an exploration effort have passed step 3. For example, compare these two pieces of stratigraphic work:

* A simple gross sand isopach map that is essentially unaltered by results of considerable additional drilling. Such correct predictions represent work that has earned a high scientific confidence level and therefore is well past step 3.

* A simple gross sand [[Subsurface maps#Isopach|isopach]] map that is essentially unaltered by results of considerable additional drilling. Such correct predictions represent work that has earned a high scientific confidence level and therefore is well past step 3.

* A newly prepared environmental, lithofacies, and seismic–stratigraphic interpretation of a similar sand unit. Although prepared with an impressive degree of advanced technical competence, this is only an untested hypothesis and therefore has only reached step 3.

* A newly prepared [[Depositional environments|environmental]], [[lithofacies]] (see [[Lithofacies and environmental analysis of clastic depositional systems]] and [[Carbonate facies]]), and [[Seismic interpretation|seismic–stratigraphic interpretation]] of a similar sand unit. Although prepared with an impressive degree of advanced technical competence, this is only an untested hypothesis and therefore has only reached step 3.

The scientific method recognizes the degree of proof of the hypothesis, not the sophistication of the data used to prepare it.

The scientific method recognizes the degree of proof of the hypothesis, not the sophistication of the data used to prepare it.

==Step 4: Predict results==

==Step 4: Predict results==

Step 4 in the scientific method sequence is predicting that hydrocarbons can be found and economically produced at a specific location, using the maps, cross sections, etc., made in step 3. Predictions are of most value when their specific components are properly recorded in advance of verification along with some estimate of the degree of confidence in the components.

Step 4 in the scientific method sequence is predicting that hydrocarbons can be found and economically produced at a specific location, using the [[Subsurface maps|maps]], [[Geological cross sections|cross sections]], etc., made in step 3. Predictions are of most value when their specific components are properly recorded in advance of verification along with some estimate of the degree of confidence in the components.

==Step 5: Test predictions==

==Step 5: Test predictions==

Next, we must check or observe the predictions of step 4 against the outcome of some test, such as drilling a well or seismically detailing (reshooting) a prospect.

Next, we must check or observe the predictions of step 4 against the outcome of some test, such as [[drilling a well]] or seismically detailing (reshooting) a prospect.

==Step 6: Accept, modify, or reject the hypothesis==

==Step 6: Accept, modify, or reject the hypothesis==

Drilling a wildcat well on a prospect rarely completely proves or disproves the original interpretation. Generally the test performed at step 5 modifies the interpretation to a greater or lesser extent and always alters the confidence level attributable to the interpretation. Depending on the confidence retained in the interpretation, we may drill another wildcat well, promote a test, or drop the acreage, in descending orders of confidence. Step 6 of the scientific method as applied to petroleum exploration is accepting, modifying, or rejecting the hypotheses or interpretation developed at step 4.

Drilling a [[wildcat]] well on a prospect rarely completely proves or disproves the original interpretation. Generally the test performed at step 5 modifies the interpretation to a greater or lesser extent and always alters the confidence level (see [[Risk: expected value and chance of success]]) attributable to the interpretation. Depending on the confidence retained in the interpretation, we may drill another wildcat well, promote a test, or drop the acreage, in descending orders of confidence. Step 6 of the scientific method as applied to petroleum exploration is accepting, modifying, or rejecting the hypotheses or interpretation developed at step 4.

==See also==

==See also==

* [[Applying the scientific method to petroleum exploration]]

* [[Scientific method]]

* [[What is the scientific method?]]

* [[Scientific predictions: measurement and evaluation]]

* [[Measuring and evaluating scientific predictions]]

==External links==

==External links==

[[Category:Developing a philosophy of exploration]]

[[Category:Developing a philosophy of exploration]]