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Risk: expected value and chance of success (view source)
Revision as of 18:50, 15 January 2014
, 18:50, 15 January 2014→Expected value concept: fixed table
! Trial
! Trial
! Outcome
! Outcome
! Consequence – Cost
! Profit/Loss × Probability =
! Risked Result
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| Free trial
| Free trial
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| Incorrect call
| Incorrect call
| 0–0 =
| 0–0 =
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| EV =+[[cost::10,000 USD]]
| EV =+[[cost::10,000 USD]]
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| Incorrect call
| Incorrect call
| 0–[[cost::10,000 USD]] =
| 0–[[cost::10,000 USD]] =
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| EV= 0
| EV= 0
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| EV= +[[cost::2,000 USD]]
| EV= +[[cost::2,000 USD]]
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