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Risk: expected value and chance of success (view source)
Revision as of 19:02, 3 April 2014
, 19:02, 3 April 2014→Expected value concept
| rowspan=3 | Free trial || Correct call || +[[cost::20,000 USD]] – 0 = || +[[cost::20,000 USD]] × 0.5 = || +[[cost::10,000 USD]]
| rowspan=3 | Free trial || Correct call || +[[cost::20,000 USD]] – 0 = || +[[cost::20,000 USD]] × 0.5 = || +[[cost::10,000 USD]]
|-
|-
| Incorrect call || 0–0 = || 0 × 0.5 = || 0
| Incorrect call || 0 – 0 = || 0 × 0.5 = || 0
|-
|-
| colspan=3 align=right | || EV =+[[cost::10,000 USD]]
| colspan=3 | || EV =+[[cost::10,000 USD]]
|-
|-
| [[cost::10,000 USD]] trial
| rowspan = 3 | [[cost::10,000 USD]] trial || Correct call || +[[cost::20,000 USD]]–[[cost::10,000 USD]] = || +[[cost::10,000 USD]] × 0.5 = || +[[cost::5,000 USD]]
| Correct call
| +[[cost::20,000 USD]]–[[cost::10,000 USD]] =
| +[[cost::10,000 USD]] × 0.5 =
| +[[cost::5,000 USD]]
|-
|-
| Incorrect call || 0 – [[cost::10,000 USD]] = | –[[cost::10,000 USD]] × 0.5 = | –[[cost::5,000 USD]]
| Incorrect call
| 0–[[cost::10,000 USD]] =
| –[[cost::10,000 USD]] × 0.5 =
| –[[cost::5,000 USD]]
|-
|-
|
| colspan = 3 | || EV= 0
|
|
| EV= 0
|-
|-
| [[cost::8,000 USD]] trial
| [[cost::8,000 USD]] trial