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Uncertainties impacting reserves, revenue, and costs (view source)
Revision as of 17:29, 10 January 2014
, 17:29, 10 January 2014→Biases in estimating
==Biases in estimating==
==Biases in estimating==
[[File:Table rose time-value-of-money 1.jpg|thumbnail|'''Table 1.''']]
[[File:Table rose time-value-of-money 1.jpg|thumbnail|'''Table 1.''' Biases affecting judgments under uncertainty.]]
Unfortunately, a number of psychological biases exist, many of which are described by Tversky and Kahneman,<ref name=Tversky_etal_1981>Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1981, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice: Science, v. 211, p. 453-458.</ref> that tend to produce inconsistencies whenever we estimate under uncertainty ([[:Image:Table_rose_time-value-of-money_1.jpg|Table 1]]). For the development geologist, three such biases are especially dangerous:
Unfortunately, a number of psychological biases exist, many of which are described by Tversky and Kahneman,<ref name=Tversky_etal_1981>Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman, 1981, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice: Science, v. 211, p. 453-458.</ref> that tend to produce inconsistencies whenever we estimate under uncertainty ([[:Image:Table_rose_time-value-of-money_1.jpg|Table 1]]). For the development geologist, three such biases are especially dangerous: