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Uncertainties impacting reserves, revenue, and costs (view source)
Revision as of 16:45, 8 May 2014
, 16:45, 8 May 2014→Combining distributions
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| P<sub>10%</sub> value || 20 ac || x 7 ft || x 100 bbl/ac-ft || = 14,000 bbl = P<sub>1.3%</sub> || P<sub>10%</sub> = 28,000 || rowspan = 4 | Mz<sup>a</sup> = 91,584 bbl
| P<sub>10%</sub> value || 20 ac || x 7 ft || x 100 bbl/ac-ft || = 14,000 bbl = P<sub>1.3%</sub> || P<sub>10%</sub> = 28,000 || rowspan = 4 | Mz<sup>a</sup> = 91,584 bbl
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| P<sub>50%</sub> value || 32 ac || x 12 ft || x 190 bbl/ac-ft || = 72,960 bbl = P<sub>50%</sub> || P<sub>50%</sub> = 72,960
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| P<sub>90%</sub> value || 50 ac || x 20 ft || x 350 bbl/ac-ft || = 350,000 bbl = P<sub>98.7%</sub> || P<sub>90%</sub> = 180,000
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| Mean<sup>a</sup> (Mz) || 33.8 ac || x 12.9 ft || x x 211 bbl/ac-ft || = 92,000 bbl
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<sup>a</sub>Approximated by Swansons rule
Note that multiplying the three ''P''<sub>90%</sub> values for area, net pay, and hydrocarbon recovery does not yield a ''P''<sub>90%</sub> value for reserves; in fact, it gives a product corresponding to 98.7%! Similarly, multiplying the three ''P''<sub>10%</sub> values gives a reserves product that corresponds to ''P''<sub>1.3%</sub>, not ''P''<sub>10%</sub>.
Note that multiplying the three ''P''<sub>90%</sub> values for area, net pay, and hydrocarbon recovery does not yield a ''P''<sub>90%</sub> value for reserves; in fact, it gives a product corresponding to 98.7%! Similarly, multiplying the three ''P''<sub>10%</sub> values gives a reserves product that corresponds to ''P''<sub>1.3%</sub>, not ''P''<sub>10%</sub>.