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Risk: expected value and chance of success (view source)
Revision as of 21:02, 21 July 2014
, 21:02, 21 July 2014→Applications to development projects
==Applications to development projects==
==Applications to development projects==
In development projects, just as in exploration projects, the geological chance factors must be derived from the study of maps, cross sections, and well data. They cannot be "pulled out of the air." However, there is an important difference: the fact that development is contemplated at all implies that a petroleum accumulation exists, so the hydrocarbon charge and seal/trap requirements have generally been satisfied. The only remaining geological risks have to do with (1) structural variations that may depress the reservoir below the oil-water contact and (2) stratigraphic variations affecting both thickness and quality of the reservoir section.
In development projects, just as in exploration projects, the geological chance factors must be derived from the study of maps, cross sections, and well data. They cannot be "pulled out of the air." However, there is an important difference: the fact that development is contemplated at all implies that a petroleum accumulation exists, so the hydrocarbon charge and seal/trap requirements have generally been satisfied. The only remaining geological risks have to do with (1) structural variations that may depress the reservoir below the [http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/en/Terms.aspx?LookIn=term%20name&filter=oil-water%20contact oil-water contact] and (2) stratigraphic variations affecting both thickness and quality of the reservoir section.
Although individual development wells have a high probability of success, some development dry holes are drilled. Naturally, the proportion of development dry holes will vary according to the geological characteristics of individual fields and trends. Nevertheless, this failure rate is significant and must be anticipated in
Although individual development wells have a high probability of success, some development dry holes are drilled. Naturally, the proportion of development dry holes will vary according to the geological characteristics of individual fields and trends. Nevertheless, this failure rate is significant and must be anticipated in