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Line 129: − [[File:Charles-l-vavra-john-g-kaldi-robert-m-sneider capillary-pressure 5.jpg|thumbnail|'''Table 2.''' 1988 success rates, United States and Canada]]+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
Risk: expected value and chance of success (view source)
Revision as of 18:31, 15 January 2014
, 18:31, 15 January 2014→Probability of completion: adding tables
The probability of success and—by subtracting it from 1.0—its derived counterpart, the ''probability of failure,'' or ''P''<sub>f</sub>, are the expressions required to calculate the expected value of an exploratory drilling venture. A further modification is necessary for development wells and projects.
The probability of success and—by subtracting it from 1.0—its derived counterpart, the ''probability of failure,'' or ''P''<sub>f</sub>, are the expressions required to calculate the expected value of an exploratory drilling venture. A further modification is necessary for development wells and projects.
{| class = "wikitable"
|-
|+ {{table number|2}}1988 success rates, united states and Canada
|-
! Well Class
! U.S.
! Canada
|-
| New pool wildcats
| 0.53
| 0.48
|-
| Deeper pool wildcats
| 0.15
| 0.54
|-
| Shallower pool wildcats
| 0.62
| None reported
|-
| Outpost (extension) wildcats
| 0.42
| 0.68
|-
| New field wildcats
| 0.14
| 0.30
|-
| All exploratory wells
| 0.30
| 0.56
|-
| All development wells
| 0.79
| 0.85
|}
When compared with exploration drilling statistics, such as those reported annually by the AAPG Committee on Statistics of Drilling (CSD), ''P''<sub>s</sub> was approximately equivalent to their definition of ''success,'' that is, that the subject well was completed and did produce some hydrocarbons. ''This does not mean that the venture was profitable.'' In fact, this definition of success contains at least four possible outcomes:
When compared with exploration drilling statistics, such as those reported annually by the AAPG Committee on Statistics of Drilling (CSD), ''P''<sub>s</sub> was approximately equivalent to their definition of ''success,'' that is, that the subject well was completed and did produce some hydrocarbons. ''This does not mean that the venture was profitable.'' In fact, this definition of success contains at least four possible outcomes: