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Line 51: − − [[File:Rose__expected-value-and-chance-of-success__Table_1.png|thumb|{{table_number|1}}Expected value examples (Coin Toss)]]
Risk: expected value and chance of success (view source)
Revision as of 19:43, 11 December 2013
, 19:43, 11 December 2013→Probability of completion
# Minimum but finite dimensions are required for all reserves parameters, such as area, net pay, and hydrocarbon recovery factor. The concept here is that a small but finite volume of oil or natural gas, and some minimum reservoir thickness and quality, must be present for an accumulation even to be ''detected'' by an operator. In other words, the lower limit of an ''accumulation'' thus defined is substantially larger than 1 bbl of oil!
# Minimum but finite dimensions are required for all reserves parameters, such as area, net pay, and hydrocarbon recovery factor. The concept here is that a small but finite volume of oil or natural gas, and some minimum reservoir thickness and quality, must be present for an accumulation even to be ''detected'' by an operator. In other words, the lower limit of an ''accumulation'' thus defined is substantially larger than 1 bbl of oil!
# The four geological chance factors are defined so as to include the concept of the ''practical'' lower limit, that is, a modicum of [[porosity]], [[permeability]], and thickness of reservoir rock; a closure sufficient to contain an accumulation large enough to sustain a production test (or even a prudent drill stem test); and a hydrocarbon charge and sealing capability sufficient for at least 50% hydrogen saturation.
# The four geological chance factors are defined so as to include the concept of the ''practical'' lower limit, that is, a modicum of [[porosity]], [[permeability]], and thickness of reservoir rock; a closure sufficient to contain an accumulation large enough to sustain a production test (or even a prudent drill stem test); and a hydrocarbon charge and sealing capability sufficient for at least 50% hydrogen saturation.
The probability of success and—by subtracting it from 1.0—its derived counterpart, the ''probability of failure,'' or ''P''<sub>f</sub>, are the expressions required to calculate the expected value of an exploratory drilling venture. A further modification is necessary for development wells and projects.
The probability of success and—by subtracting it from 1.0—its derived counterpart, the ''probability of failure,'' or ''P''<sub>f</sub>, are the expressions required to calculate the expected value of an exploratory drilling venture. A further modification is necessary for development wells and projects.